June 3, 2026 • 10 min read

Ergodicity: Why Averages Don't Apply to Individuals

Average outcomes don't apply to individuals over time. Understanding this changes risk assessment.

Ergodicity: averages apply to populations, not individuals over time. A 50% chance of doubling money doesn't mean you'll end up with half—you'll either double or zero.

The Individual Problem

If a gamble has 50% chance to double and 50% to halve, the average is neutral. But any individual will eventually go broke. Average population outcomes don't apply to individuals over time.

Average results don't apply to you over time.

Practical Implications

• Understand variance: Outcomes vary widely
• Protect against ruin: Don't risk everything
• Time matters: Over time, some risks kill
• Personal, not average: You're not a population

Don't assume average outcomes apply to you.